Rumour has it that if Johor is going to fall in the next General Election (GE14), together with Penang and Selangor, the finance of the government is going to take a big hit. You see, Selangor, Johor and Penang are the three most prosperous states in Malaysia. Barisan Nasional (BN) has lost the crown jewel in Selangor to the opposition alliance. If Johor, an UMNO stronghold, is felled too, the implication is such that Sabah and Sarawak may be swayed to join the opposition alliance as well. Then the opposition alliance may stand a chance to form a new government, for the first time in history. But is it doable in the first place?
Just had a look at the composition of the existing state assembly of Johor. There are 56 seats. BN current controls 38 seats. Pakatan Harapan (PH) controls 14 seats. Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS) controls 4 seats. A simple majority requires 29 seats. So PH needs to wrestle 15 seats from the current incumbent, and that is assuming that they can hold their existing seats. That is a big ask if you were to ask me. We know Muhyiddin has some presence in Johor, and Mahathir is plotting to bring Najib down. And the well respected Johor Royal Family and Najib’s administration are not the best of friends. But will the Johoreans, particularly the Malays, be keen to vote for PH? And we haven’t even factored in the disruption brought on by PAS since they are not part of the line-up of the opposition alliance. This means that potentially there will be many three corner fights in GE14, and this will most likely benefit BN. So how is PH going to win over Johor in the next GE? It is just silly talks if I’m being honest..